Having watched the number and value of their business transactions drop off instead of grow over the past eight months, ISOs, acquirers, and merchant processors anxiously await the months ahead. But while those who predict future economic activity say the worst is probably over, they hesitate to forecast much improvement this year.

The most likely prognosis for the remainder of 2009 is that the economy will stall at a depressed level, says Richard Hoey, chief economist at Bank of New York Mellon. Middleclass spending will depend largely on job prospects; upperclass spending will depend largely on wealth, principally stock portfolios.

“We’re forecasting a negative 0.5 percent growth for 2009, with modest gains in the second half, but those are compared to weak 2008 numbers,” reports Scott Krugman, vice president of the National Retail Federation in Washington, D.C. “Everyone is afraid to declare a bottom to this recession.”

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